France to overcome Spain to win 2026 World Cup, according to economists

Nearly 160 respondents from all continents took part in this quadrennial poll, which offers a refreshing change from their macroeconomic forecasts amid wars, energy crises, and renewed debates over whether inflation is transitory or persistent.

This time, their task concerns the largest World Cup ever: a 48-team competition with 104 matches held across the United States, Canada, and Mexico - the first to be played in three nations.

Les Bleus received 35% of the vote in the 11 May to 5 June poll, enough to add a third star to their crest, just ahead of Spain on 31% - a result in line with betting sites such as Polymarket - and would restore Europe's place at the top of international football.

Didier Deschamps of France would be the first manager since Italy's Vittorio Pozzo in 1938 to win two World Cups, and the only one to achieve this after having also won the trophy as a player in 1998.

Argentina, the defending champions and top of the current FIFA world rankings, along with Portugal and England, completed the top five selections.

"Following the disappointment of the 2022 final, France seems well set to go one better this time," said Cathal Kennedy, senior economist at RBC, based in London.

"The squad still includes many from the team that reached the final, who are now approaching the peak of their careers, supplemented by the emergence of some players from Paris Saint-Germain."

"Additionally, they should be able to call on a well-rested Kylian Mbappé for the tournament."

Mbappé, who has just completed another prolific season at Real Madrid, was chosen by the poll for both the Golden Ball (awarded to the tournament's best player) and the Golden Boot for the top scorer.

He narrowly beat England captain Harry Kane, winner of the European Golden Shoe after a career-best 61-goal season with Bayern Munich.

Another milestone is probably within reach for both. Mbappé and Kane, with 12 and eight World Cup goals respectively, are among those chasing the all-time record of 16 held by German legend Miroslav Klose, along with Lionel Messi on 13.

Basic instinct

There were the dreamers. Two respondents chose Japan, one Mexico and one Morocco - any of which would create a World Cup fairytale - among the 8% who said loyalty guided their choices. An overwhelming 73% said they followed their gut instinct.

"As with any model, the forecast was adjusted with a large dose of gut feeling!" joked Shannon Bold, senior economist at the Bureau of Economic Research in Johannesburg.

About 20% depended on data and models for their predictions. "The macroeconomists gathered together and developed a house view," said Claudio Govender at RMB.

However, the poll's outlook for Brazil was grim.

Even the arrival of Carlo Ancelotti as manager has not boosted confidence, with nearly a third choosing the Seleção - quarter-final losers to Croatia in 2022 - as the football powerhouse most likely to disappoint, followed by England and Germany.

Norway, led by Manchester City striker Erling Haaland, could provide the drama - chosen by 21% as the underdogs most likely to surprise, ahead of Japan on 15%.

The hunt for breakout stars was wide open. Respondents spread their votes across 46 players, but Spain's 18-year-old forward Lamine Yamal came top.

France's Mike Maignan, Argentina's Emiliano Martínez and Spain's Unai Simón were among the favourites for the Golden Glove, given to the tournament's best goalkeeper.

Costly cup

Off the field, organisers face a huge logistical challenge as millions of fans get ready to flock to North America, with affordability already a contentious issue.

The high cost of tickets, accommodation and travel across the continent has sparked fears that this could be the most expensive World Cup ever for fans.

So much for a respite from inflation.

More than 60% said predicting inflation in 2026 was still easier than forecasting football's biggest prize - though recent years have set a very low standard.

"We know when the World Cup is going to end," said Ozan Can Turkmen at Turkey's Şekerbank. "On the other hand, the energy supply crisis..."