Mamelodi Sundowns Remarkable CAF Champions League Knockout Record Following First Leg Victories

The South African outfit is anticipated to progress further, since it would demand a disastrous and entirely novel reversal for their Malian rivals to pull them back, despite the return fixture in Bamako.

Below is an overview of key statistics and details prior to the encounter.

Benefit of the opening leg

Mamelodi Sundowns have never been knocked out of a two-legged CAF club competition after securing a 3-0 lead from the initial fixture. Indeed, they have never relinquished such a margin in any two-legged knockout competition. It seems highly unlikely for that to occur in this instance. They have conceded the return match under these conditions, such as during the 2016 Champions League final, where they defeated Zamalek 3-0 on home soil before adopting a defensive approach in Egypt and suffering a 1-0 loss. They may have lost the second game but ultimately prevailed by claiming the championship.

Uncommon reversals

Over time, Mamelodi Sundowns have held a lead after the opening leg in 23 knockout rounds of the Champions League and triumphed in 21 of those overall ties. The exceptions were during the second round of 2015, when they edged TP Mazembe 1-0 at home yet fell 3-1 in Lubumbashi to the DR Congo team, and in the 2017 quarter-finals against Wydad Casablanca, where a 1-0 home win was matched by a 1-0 away defeat, resulting in elimination via penalties.

Performance in return legs after first leg successes

Following those 23 initial victories in the Champions League, Mamelodi Sundowns secured 14 wins, four stalemates, and five defeats in the subsequent legs. On three occasions, they dropped the return fixture yet advanced overall, including the notable 2016 final versus Zamalek. They also suffered a 2-0 loss to Petro Atletico in the 2001 semi-finals after a 2-0 first leg win, but progressed on penalties. Additionally, they lost 1-0 to Al Ahly in the return of their 2018/19 quarter-final after a 5-0 home thrashing.

Mamelodi Sundowns typically find the net

Across the 46 return fixtures that Mamelodi Sundowns have contested in home-and-away Champions League knockouts after first leg triumphs, they have scored at least once in all except five. This matters because CAF regulations still favour away goals, meaning a single Sundowns goal on Sunday would force Stade Malien to net five for victory. The goalless outings were the 0-2 semi-final loss to Petro Atletico in 2001, the 2016 final return against Zamalek, the 2017 quarter-final defeat to Wydad, the 2018/19 quarter-final second leg versus Al Ahly, and a 0-0 quarter-final draw with Tunisia's Esperance last season, where Sundowns moved on 1-0 aggregate.