Bad news for Bafana: prediction models forecast an early World Cup exit for South Africa

The man whose intricate data modelling correctly forecast the last three World Cup winners has them being eliminated in the first round, as does a model from investment bank Goldman Sachs, which also relies on extensive data to draw its conclusions.

However, the silver lining is that these models are clearly not flawless, as they produce conflicting predictions for the tournament champion.

Bafana Bafana have been eliminated at the group stage in all three of their earlier World Cup appearances in 1998, 2002 and 2010. They secured two points in the first tournament, then four points in each of the subsequent two.

This time, four points should be sufficient to progress, with eight of the twelve best third-placed teams advancing to the Round of 32 in the expanded 48-team competition.

South Africa are ranked 60th globally and face Mexico (15th) in the tournament opener on 11 June. They will then play the Czech Republic (41st) on 18 June and South Korea (25th) six days later.

Therefore, it would come as no surprise if they finished at the bottom of the group based purely on rankings, although coach Hugo Broos will be quietly confident of springing a surprise.

German economist Joachim Clement correctly predicted that Germany (2014), France (2018) and Argentina (2022) would claim the trophy in the last three editions.

Clement's model considers various factors, including national population, economy, climate and FIFA rankings.

He projects Mexico, the Czech Republic and South Korea to advance from the group, with Bafana Bafana finishing last.

His forecast for the tournament winner? The Netherlands defeating Portugal in the final.

Goldman Sachs has also put its analytical capabilities to the test, with many of its findings based on Elo ratings, a complex ranking system employed across many sports for predicting results.

The investment bank likewise has Bafana's three group opponents moving on to the Round of 32, but predicts that Spain will beat Argentina in the final. It sees the Netherlands losing to France in the quarter-finals.

Is there any ray of hope for Bafana supporters?

On The Pitch ran a simulation of the 2026 World Cup 50,000 times; in 28% of those runs, South Africa progressed from the group stage. In other words, if the tournament were played four times, Bafana would advance once.

But then the model also had Evidence Makgopa as a key player for the team, starting alongside Lyle Foster, with Mbekezeli Mbokazi on the bench, so draw your own conclusions from that.