The smooth road Argentina have been handed to the World Cup semi-finals

Nine points, eight goals scored. That’s the record for Argentina, who, in a group that on paper wasn’t particularly demanding, have reaffirmed their status as one of the favourites for the 2026 World Cup. With Lionel Messi playing 'at home' and representing MLS, their position as top contenders has only been strengthened after the knockout stage draw was revealed.

The round of 16 match against Cape Verde looks, at least on paper, more than manageable, as it’s a team without standout individuals capable of making a difference and who reached this stage after drawing all three of their matches.

Beyond the huge gap in the FIFA rankings - with the South Americans in first place and the Africans at 67th - the difference in quality on the pitch is clear between the reigning champions and a team that made it to the United States thanks to the expanded AFCON slots.

Space and time

What lies ahead, at least before the clash with Cape Verde, is a freshly paved highway for the world champions. With qualification to the next round almost a given after their convincing performances in the first three matches, the team led by Lionel Scaloni should face Australia or Egypt in the round of 16.

In the quarter-finals, the toughest opponent would be Colombia or perhaps Switzerland, who have a more solid structure. The fact that Portugal didn’t win their group has deprived the World Cup of a much-anticipated quarter-final showdown between Cristiano Ronaldo and Messi himself.

But it’s not just fate smiling on the South Americans. The Argentinians will have two more days of rest compared to, for example, England, who, after beating Panama on Saturday night, will face the Democratic Republic of Congo on Wednesday at 18:00 CET. While Argentina defeated Jordan 3-1, they will play their round of 16 match against Cape Verde two days and five hours later.

Not much of a test?

So, from the outset, it’s hard not to think that the world champions could take advantage of the favourable conditions to reach the semifinals in top form, where, besides the English, the most dangerous potential opponents would be Brazil. However, Carlo Ancelotti’s team has yet to showcase that they are true contenders.

All the conditions are in place for another triumphant run to the final and a second consecutive trophy. Destiny seems to be on their side. The only thing that could tip the balance is the lack of truly tough tests. While the relative weakness of some opponents allows for better resource management - especially for a Messi who just turned 39 but remains as decisive in the box as he was at 25 - it could also be a double-edged sword.

Avoiding France and Spain, the strongest long-term rivals, before a potential final is undoubtedly an advantage in the race for the title. The road to the final in New Jersey, for now, looks smooth and clear. The only obstacle, paradoxically, could be overconfidence after facing lesser and less demanding teams. At the end of a journey with hardly any bumps, it will be the mind that counts more than the lungs and legs.